The Fort Worth Press - What impact will Trump have on the world economy?

USD -
AED 3.673005
AFN 68.386442
ALL 93.021933
AMD 389.349314
ANG 1.803734
AOA 913.000031
ARS 1002.721397
AUD 1.53358
AWG 1.8
AZN 1.702057
BAM 1.854577
BBD 2.020785
BDT 119.602116
BGN 1.858799
BHD 0.376916
BIF 2956.030306
BMD 1
BND 1.344124
BOB 6.930721
BRL 5.790848
BSD 1.000863
BTN 84.433613
BWP 13.672612
BYN 3.275301
BYR 19600
BZD 2.017372
CAD 1.39639
CDF 2864.999911
CHF 0.88374
CLF 0.035265
CLP 973.069559
CNY 7.241401
CNH 7.24719
COP 4396.59
CRC 508.251983
CUC 1
CUP 26.5
CVE 104.558213
CZK 24.0877
DJF 178.22092
DKK 7.087555
DOP 60.364405
DZD 133.750861
EGP 49.678296
ERN 15
ETB 124.782215
EUR 0.950275
FJD 2.269701
FKP 0.789317
GBP 0.791103
GEL 2.740301
GGP 0.789317
GHS 15.887842
GIP 0.789317
GMD 71.000247
GNF 8627.008472
GTQ 7.726299
GYD 209.391416
HKD 7.782965
HNL 25.291226
HRK 7.133259
HTG 131.472895
HUF 390.756993
IDR 15903.25
ILS 3.732285
IMP 0.789317
INR 84.493503
IQD 1311.043259
IRR 42092.505939
ISK 138.290123
JEP 0.789317
JMD 158.639851
JOD 0.709302
JPY 154.656495
KES 129.249619
KGS 86.506766
KHR 4038.536303
KMF 467.499881
KPW 899.999621
KRW 1398.125025
KWD 0.30759
KYD 0.834076
KZT 497.17423
LAK 21976.521459
LBP 89633.50686
LKR 291.187013
LRD 181.150969
LSL 18.152914
LTL 2.95274
LVL 0.60489
LYD 4.883414
MAD 9.998293
MDL 18.214834
MGA 4685.233124
MKD 58.48862
MMK 3247.960992
MNT 3397.999946
MOP 8.024142
MRU 39.785889
MUR 46.412517
MVR 15.460006
MWK 1735.461174
MXN 20.325297
MYR 4.464971
MZN 63.950307
NAD 18.152914
NGN 1680.590024
NIO 36.829479
NOK 11.03348
NPR 135.09167
NZD 1.703345
OMR 0.385001
PAB 1.000778
PEN 3.7981
PGK 4.029035
PHP 59.039501
PKR 278.226704
PLN 4.126669
PYG 7838.117183
QAR 3.649699
RON 4.729799
RSD 111.205995
RUB 101.000437
RWF 1380.157217
SAR 3.754257
SBD 8.355531
SCR 13.619994
SDG 601.497088
SEK 11.030315
SGD 1.343699
SHP 0.789317
SLE 22.575045
SLL 20969.504736
SOS 571.975839
SRD 35.43028
STD 20697.981008
SVC 8.757041
SYP 2512.529858
SZL 18.142596
THB 34.647019
TJS 10.658746
TMT 3.5
TND 3.159078
TOP 2.342102
TRY 34.465475
TTD 6.776157
TWD 32.567494
TZS 2652.359028
UAH 41.269214
UGX 3693.413492
UYU 42.784805
UZS 12854.406494
VES 46.433371
VND 25422.5
VUV 118.722009
WST 2.791591
XAF 622.001915
XAG 0.032192
XAU 0.000375
XCD 2.70255
XDR 0.761528
XOF 622.001915
XPF 113.087675
YER 249.924998
ZAR 18.116198
ZMK 9001.198706
ZMW 27.697968
ZWL 321.999592
  • RBGPF

    59.6900

    59.69

    +100%

  • RYCEF

    -0.0800

    6.61

    -1.21%

  • CMSC

    -0.0450

    24.52

    -0.18%

  • CMSD

    -0.0836

    24.26

    -0.34%

  • SCS

    -0.0200

    13.07

    -0.15%

  • BCC

    -0.7700

    137.41

    -0.56%

  • GSK

    -0.1100

    33.35

    -0.33%

  • RELX

    -0.1800

    45.11

    -0.4%

  • BCE

    -0.3100

    27

    -1.15%

  • NGG

    -0.3100

    63.27

    -0.49%

  • RIO

    -0.0400

    62.39

    -0.06%

  • JRI

    -0.0300

    13.23

    -0.23%

  • BP

    -0.0100

    29.08

    -0.03%

  • VOD

    0.0200

    8.94

    +0.22%

  • BTI

    0.1500

    37.08

    +0.4%

  • AZN

    -0.6000

    63.2

    -0.95%

What impact will Trump have on the world economy?
What impact will Trump have on the world economy? / Photo: © GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File

What impact will Trump have on the world economy?

Donald Trump's return to the White House with his protectionist policies poses threats for the global economy, with the prospect of new trade wars, resurgent inflation and slower growth, experts say.

Text size:

- Global trade threatened? -

During his first term in office from 2017 to 2021, Trump often resorted to punitive tariffs in disputes with trade partners.

In this 2024 campaign, he pledged to impose an additional 60 percent import tariff on Chinese products and an extra 10 percent tariff on products from the rest of the world.

Taking into account the probable retaliatory measures from Beijing and Brussels, the impact on the European Union economy will be $533 billion through 2029, $749 billion for the United States and $827 billion for China, according to a study by the Roland Berger consulting firm.

A separate study by the London School of Economics estimated that the impact on emerging market nations such as India, Indonesia and Brazil would be much less.

Jamie Thompson, head of macroeconomic forecasting at London-based Oxford Economics, said he sees little shot-term economic impact due to the delays in implementing policies, but they could be positive for growth.

"While the outlook for 2025 is essentially unchanged, global growth is likely to be a little stronger in 2026 and 2027 on the back of the election result, as the impact of looser US fiscal policy more than offsets the drag from targeted tariff measures," he told AFP.

But if across-the-board tariffs are imposed it "could leave the global economy around 0.75 percent smaller –- and global trade down some three percent -- by the end of the decade," he added.

The prospects for international cooperation, which can boost trade and growth, will also be dimmer under a second Trump administration, said Tara Varma, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, a US think tank.

"The multilateral world of the 1990-2000s will no longer exist," she said, adding that she anticipates a brutal change in US policies.

- A surge in inflation? -

Donald Trump's policies could also rekindle inflation, which cooled following a series of interest-rate hikes that the Federal Reserve began to unwind this year.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics, a US think tank, estimated it could add between two and four percentage points to China's inflation rate.

The impact of "immigration policy is as important as global trade" on inflation, noted for his part Gilles Moec, chief economist at insurer Axa.

If Trump follows through with talk of a massive expulsion of unauthorised immigrants it could aggravate the labour shortage in the United States.

The Pew Research Center estimated that 8.3 million unauthorised workers could be affected.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated this could add more than two percentage points to the US inflation rate next year, 0.2 percentage points in Europe and 0.6 percentage points in China.

Moec noted the surge in inflation would force central banks to hit the brakes on the cycle of interest rate cuts they began earlier this year as inflation subsided.

Analysts had been looking at lower interest rates to spur consumers to spend and companies to invest and put some more wind into the sails of the global economy.

- Trade war to snuff out growth? -

The trade war that Trump has threatened to wage against China risks sapping global growth.

Asia accounts for 60 percent of global growth, but would be hit hard by a trade war between the United States and China, the International Monetary Fund warned earlier this month.

The United States has also been one of the fastest growing developed economies but Trump's policies risk shaving two percentage points off US GDP per year between 2027 and 2031 from baseline estimates, according to a forecast from the Peterson Institute.

M.Delgado--TFWP