The Fort Worth Press - What impact will Trump have on the world economy?

USD -
AED 3.672966
AFN 66.999631
ALL 91.749116
AMD 387.359849
ANG 1.802171
AOA 909.051009
ARS 992.791596
AUD 1.52101
AWG 1.8
AZN 1.704736
BAM 1.826229
BBD 2.019022
BDT 119.500409
BGN 1.82569
BHD 0.376849
BIF 2897.5
BMD 1
BND 1.335568
BOB 6.909368
BRL 6.166801
BSD 0.999939
BTN 84.609495
BWP 13.476956
BYN 3.272265
BYR 19600
BZD 2.015623
CAD 1.39296
CDF 2865.000367
CHF 0.87445
CLF 0.034937
CLP 964.150437
CNY 7.178798
CNH 7.119295
COP 4431.65
CRC 512.669664
CUC 1
CUP 26.5
CVE 101.303781
CZK 23.610973
DJF 178.061853
DKK 6.94858
DOP 60.474969
DZD 133.52548
EGP 49.236202
ERN 15
ETB 119.999907
EUR 0.931845
FJD 2.256405
FKP 0.765169
GBP 0.77627
GEL 2.714989
GGP 0.765169
GHS 16.391475
GIP 0.765169
GMD 71.499023
GNF 8629.99971
GTQ 7.717054
GYD 209.203302
HKD 7.776515
HNL 25.221532
HRK 6.88903
HTG 131.566537
HUF 382.894031
IDR 15846.05
ILS 3.740105
IMP 0.765169
INR 84.31935
IQD 1309.889535
IRR 42092.494587
ISK 138.329536
JEP 0.765169
JMD 158.392082
JOD 0.709299
JPY 154.143995
KES 129.000004
KGS 86.201786
KHR 4074.999946
KMF 450.549854
KPW 899.999774
KRW 1399.939839
KWD 0.30625
KYD 0.833345
KZT 492.961363
LAK 21938.999789
LBP 89550.000251
LKR 292.794076
LRD 189.999988
LSL 17.379953
LTL 2.95274
LVL 0.60489
LYD 4.834964
MAD 9.795036
MDL 17.884607
MGA 4651.293089
MKD 57.514503
MMK 3247.960992
MNT 3398.000028
MOP 8.007134
MRU 39.911728
MUR 46.520092
MVR 15.409849
MWK 1735.501759
MXN 20.52426
MYR 4.403503
MZN 63.874954
NAD 17.370023
NGN 1676.889653
NIO 36.801681
NOK 11.118145
NPR 135.383409
NZD 1.681985
OMR 0.384982
PAB 0.999921
PEN 3.790998
PGK 4.012644
PHP 58.830497
PKR 277.903227
PLN 4.062207
PYG 7773.472151
QAR 3.640502
RON 4.640981
RSD 109.139047
RUB 98.219521
RWF 1357.967624
SAR 3.756747
SBD 8.299327
SCR 13.687798
SDG 601.503699
SEK 10.887715
SGD 1.33447
SHP 0.765169
SLE 22.749763
SLL 20969.496802
SOS 571.505946
SRD 34.833975
STD 20697.981008
SVC 8.749936
SYP 2512.530268
SZL 17.770681
THB 34.320963
TJS 10.649161
TMT 3.5
TND 3.1345
TOP 2.342102
TRY 34.235697
TTD 6.780437
TWD 32.342501
TZS 2725.000201
UAH 41.45778
UGX 3679.91036
UYU 41.611221
UZS 12789.660695
VEF 3622552.534434
VES 43.401395
VND 25385
VUV 118.722039
WST 2.801184
XAF 612.554454
XAG 0.029645
XAU 0.000367
XCD 2.70255
XDR 0.749214
XOF 612.500117
XPF 111.366873
YER 249.824968
ZAR 17.724301
ZMK 9001.214885
ZMW 27.099588
ZWL 321.999592
  • RYCEF

    0.1800

    7.48

    +2.41%

  • CMSC

    -0.1220

    24.558

    -0.5%

  • RIO

    -0.3100

    65.19

    -0.48%

  • RELX

    -0.4450

    47.465

    -0.94%

  • SCS

    0.6300

    12.95

    +4.86%

  • NGG

    -1.6900

    63.78

    -2.65%

  • GSK

    -1.2000

    35.82

    -3.35%

  • BP

    -0.1900

    29.77

    -0.64%

  • VOD

    -0.1050

    9.305

    -1.13%

  • BTI

    -0.1450

    35.315

    -0.41%

  • RBGPF

    3.1700

    64.17

    +4.94%

  • CMSD

    -0.2340

    24.806

    -0.94%

  • BCE

    -0.3750

    28.465

    -1.32%

  • JRI

    -0.0950

    13.175

    -0.72%

  • AZN

    -2.0950

    64.175

    -3.26%

  • BCC

    -0.3650

    138.125

    -0.26%

What impact will Trump have on the world economy?
What impact will Trump have on the world economy? / Photo: © GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File

What impact will Trump have on the world economy?

Donald Trump's return to the White House with his protectionist policies poses threats for the global economy, with the prospect of new trade wars, resurgent inflation and slower growth, experts say.

Text size:

- Global trade threatened? -

During his first term in office from 2017 to 2021, Trump often resorted to punitive tariffs in disputes with trade partners.

In this 2024 campaign, he pledged to impose an additional 60 percent import tariff on Chinese products and an extra 10 percent tariff on products from the rest of the world.

Taking into account the probable retaliatory measures from Beijing and Brussels, the impact on the European Union economy will be $533 billion through 2029, $749 billion for the United States and $827 billion for China, according to a study by the Roland Berger consulting firm.

A separate study by the London School of Economics estimated that the impact on emerging market nations such as India, Indonesia and Brazil would be much less.

Jamie Thompson, head of macroeconomic forecasting at London-based Oxford Economics, said he sees little shot-term economic impact due to the delays in implementing policies, but they could be positive for growth.

"While the outlook for 2025 is essentially unchanged, global growth is likely to be a little stronger in 2026 and 2027 on the back of the election result, as the impact of looser US fiscal policy more than offsets the drag from targeted tariff measures," he told AFP.

But if across-the-board tariffs are imposed it "could leave the global economy around 0.75 percent smaller –- and global trade down some three percent -- by the end of the decade," he added.

The prospects for international cooperation, which can boost trade and growth, will also be dimmer under a second Trump administration, said Tara Varma, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, a US think tank.

"The multilateral world of the 1990-2000s will no longer exist," she said, adding that she anticipates a brutal change in US policies.

- A surge in inflation? -

Donald Trump's policies could also rekindle inflation, which cooled following a series of interest-rate hikes that the Federal Reserve began to unwind this year.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics, a US think tank, estimated it could add between two and four percentage points to China's inflation rate.

The impact of "immigration policy is as important as global trade" on inflation, noted for his part Gilles Moec, chief economist at insurer Axa.

If Trump follows through with talk of a massive expulsion of unauthorised immigrants it could aggravate the labour shortage in the United States.

The Pew Research Center estimated that 8.3 million unauthorised workers could be affected.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated this could add more than two percentage points to the US inflation rate next year, 0.2 percentage points in Europe and 0.6 percentage points in China.

Moec noted the surge in inflation would force central banks to hit the brakes on the cycle of interest rate cuts they began earlier this year as inflation subsided.

Analysts had been looking at lower interest rates to spur consumers to spend and companies to invest and put some more wind into the sails of the global economy.

- Trade war to snuff out growth? -

The trade war that Trump has threatened to wage against China risks sapping global growth.

Asia accounts for 60 percent of global growth, but would be hit hard by a trade war between the United States and China, the International Monetary Fund warned earlier this month.

The United States has also been one of the fastest growing developed economies but Trump's policies risk shaving two percentage points off US GDP per year between 2027 and 2031 from baseline estimates, according to a forecast from the Peterson Institute.

M.Delgado--TFWP