The Fort Worth Press - South Korea's political crisis: what could happen next?

USD -
AED 3.673005
AFN 71.548685
ALL 89.774885
AMD 390.742248
ANG 1.790208
AOA 915.999811
ARS 1074.458097
AUD 1.61184
AWG 1.8
AZN 1.687686
BAM 1.768195
BBD 2.01763
BDT 121.408553
BGN 1.777715
BHD 0.376917
BIF 2969.894223
BMD 1
BND 1.335232
BOB 6.904439
BRL 5.654902
BSD 0.999277
BTN 85.310551
BWP 13.830576
BYN 3.270138
BYR 19600
BZD 2.007233
CAD 1.414235
CDF 2872.999944
CHF 0.855402
CLF 0.024745
CLP 949.559902
CNY 7.28155
CNH 7.258295
COP 4153.75
CRC 503.480698
CUC 1
CUP 26.5
CVE 99.688093
CZK 22.864024
DJF 177.940512
DKK 6.79249
DOP 63.104602
DZD 133.371823
EGP 50.5951
ERN 15
ETB 131.535666
EUR 0.910355
FJD 2.314901
FKP 0.770718
GBP 0.770295
GEL 2.749526
GGP 0.770718
GHS 15.488654
GIP 0.770718
GMD 71.502706
GNF 8647.500226
GTQ 7.712684
GYD 209.058855
HKD 7.77355
HNL 25.566404
HRK 6.854402
HTG 130.756713
HUF 368.643499
IDR 16745
ILS 3.724365
IMP 0.770718
INR 85.307499
IQD 1309.013652
IRR 42100.000116
ISK 131.359679
JEP 0.770718
JMD 157.390833
JOD 0.7089
JPY 146.436501
KES 129.24972
KGS 86.7116
KHR 3996.926137
KMF 450.495489
KPW 900.05404
KRW 1443.690267
KWD 0.30786
KYD 0.832746
KZT 500.949281
LAK 21648.13308
LBP 89589.614475
LKR 296.754362
LRD 199.855348
LSL 18.834644
LTL 2.95274
LVL 0.60489
LYD 4.832294
MAD 9.503842
MDL 17.846488
MGA 4557.454118
MKD 55.949556
MMK 2099.453956
MNT 3493.458295
MOP 8.006871
MRU 39.710695
MUR 45.009863
MVR 15.383085
MWK 1732.754724
MXN 20.12106
MYR 4.435018
MZN 63.910222
NAD 18.834644
NGN 1535.750135
NIO 36.768827
NOK 10.52581
NPR 136.4967
NZD 1.758505
OMR 0.384987
PAB 0.999277
PEN 3.669288
PGK 4.122593
PHP 56.961972
PKR 280.290751
PLN 3.86227
PYG 8017.358286
QAR 3.642528
RON 4.531397
RSD 106.633004
RUB 84.25884
RWF 1425.910858
SAR 3.752042
SBD 8.316332
SCR 14.484746
SDG 600.507442
SEK 9.927302
SGD 1.336815
SHP 0.785843
SLE 22.749874
SLL 20969.501083
SOS 571.105687
SRD 36.550021
STD 20697.981008
SVC 8.743332
SYP 13002.701498
SZL 18.841877
THB 34.21008
TJS 10.876865
TMT 3.5
TND 3.05759
TOP 2.342099
TRY 38.010203
TTD 6.775156
TWD 32.985198
TZS 2665.000038
UAH 41.249706
UGX 3641.623723
UYU 42.211373
UZS 12905.704728
VES 70.161515
VND 25805
VUV 123.569394
WST 2.832833
XAF 593.035892
XAG 0.031816
XAU 0.000324
XCD 2.70255
XDR 0.737546
XOF 593.035892
XPF 107.820269
YER 245.649872
ZAR 19.004802
ZMK 9001.204424
ZMW 27.754272
ZWL 321.999592
  • RIO

    -1.4700

    58.43

    -2.52%

  • CMSC

    -0.2400

    22.26

    -1.08%

  • NGG

    3.6100

    69.39

    +5.2%

  • BTI

    1.6700

    41.92

    +3.98%

  • GSK

    1.3700

    39.01

    +3.51%

  • RBGPF

    69.0200

    69.02

    +100%

  • SCS

    -0.7200

    10.74

    -6.7%

  • AZN

    1.7000

    73.92

    +2.3%

  • CMSD

    -0.1600

    22.67

    -0.71%

  • VOD

    0.2500

    9.37

    +2.67%

  • JRI

    -0.2200

    12.82

    -1.72%

  • BP

    -2.4700

    31.34

    -7.88%

  • BCC

    -7.4400

    94.63

    -7.86%

  • RYCEF

    -0.0200

    9.78

    -0.2%

  • RELX

    0.4600

    51.44

    +0.89%

  • BCE

    0.8400

    22.66

    +3.71%

South Korea's political crisis: what could happen next?
South Korea's political crisis: what could happen next? / Photo: © AFP

South Korea's political crisis: what could happen next?

South Korean investigators attempted to arrest impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol at his residence Friday over a failed martial law bid but were blocked by his security forces.

Text size:

They stood down just days before the warrant's deadline expires on Monday.

AFP takes a look at what could happen next:

- Another arrest -

The Corruption Investigation Office (CIO) may attempt to execute the arrest warrant for Yoon again before the January 6 deadline.

"Future actions will be decided after further review," it said after halting its initial attempt.

If he is arrested before that date, the CIO will have 48 hours to either request a new warrant for his formal arrest or release him.

Yoon's lawyers have repeatedly said that the warrant issued by the court is "unlawful" and "illegal", pledging to take further legal action against it.

The Presidential Security Service has also asserted that the CIO "unlawfully intruded" into the presidential residence and said it would hold the investigators "legally accountable" for their actions.

Even if January 6 comes and goes, the CIO can reapply for the same seven-day detention warrant.

- Stronger warrant -

If they fail to detain Yoon before the January 6 deadline, investigators could seek a new, stronger arrest warrant that would allow them to detain him longer than the 48 hours allowed under the current court order.

Experts say the likelihood of a court approving it is not low, given that Yoon has already refused to appear for questioning three times and has not complied with the existing warrant.

The stronger warrant is typically issued when "a suspect refuses to cooperate with the investigation", political commentator Park Sang-byung told AFP.

Yoon has also "incited and encouraged extreme (right-wing) supporters, which could be seen as effectively admitting to the criminal charges in the eyes of the court," he added.

But executing this type of warrant, even if issued by the court, may not be feasible if Yoon again refuses to leave his residence with the assistance of his security forces, which include a military unit.

- Acting president acts -

The prolonged standoff within the presidential residence compound Friday led the CIO and opposition Democratic Party to urge acting President Choi Sang-mok to order the presidential security service to cooperate.

"It is practically impossible to execute the arrest warrant as long as the security officials from the Presidential Security Service continue their protection," the CIO said in a statement.

Choi, a member of Yoon's ruling People Power Party who also serves as deputy prime minister and finance minister, is yet to comment on the issue.

Experts suggest that if Choi orders the security service to cooperate, the chances of Yoon being arrested before the January 6 deadline will increase.

But the acting president has already faced severe backlash from his party for appointing two new justices to fill three vacancies on the Constitutional Court.

That decision has increased the likelihood of the court upholding Yoon's impeachment -- with at least six out of eight needed to back the decision.

Given the situation, "it is unlikely that Choi would cooperate with the CIO's request," Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University, told AFP.

Choi's short-lived predecessor in the role of acting president and prime minister, Han Duck-soo, was impeached by lawmakers who argued he refused a key opposition demand to install three extra judges at the Constitutional Court, viewed as impeding Yoon's potential removal from office.

- 'Wait' for court -

South Korea's Constitutional Court has up to 180 days to determine whether to dismiss Yoon as president or restore his powers.

Until then, while suspended, Yoon holds the title of president.

Experts suggest the process for investigators to prosecute or formally arrest Yoon would be much easier were he to be stripped of the presidential title.

But the 180-day timeframe is considerable and could potentially delay proceedings significantly.

The Constitutional Court has said it will expedite the impeachment trial due to the seriousness of the case.

But Yoon's lawyers argued Friday that the court must utilise the full 180 days to conduct the hearings, especially to examine "the circumstances that led to the declaration of martial law".

L.Holland--TFWP