The Fort Worth Press - South Korea's political crisis: what could happen next?

USD -
AED 3.672989
AFN 71.498384
ALL 91.375029
AMD 391.160458
ANG 1.790208
AOA 917.000052
ARS 1072.800695
AUD 1.589195
AWG 1.8025
AZN 1.705782
BAM 1.811219
BBD 2.018475
BDT 121.482648
BGN 1.802698
BHD 0.376971
BIF 2926
BMD 1
BND 1.343366
BOB 6.907601
BRL 5.692802
BSD 3.495
BTN 85.449031
BWP 13.836501
BYN 3.271549
BYR 19600
BZD 2.008011
CAD 1.432565
CDF 2870.999759
CHF 0.88285
CLF 0.024908
CLP 955.839761
CNY 7.268101
CNH 7.280205
COP 4153.75
CRC 502.211006
CUC 1
CUP 26.5
CVE 102.050366
CZK 22.988495
DJF 177.720185
DKK 6.87673
DOP 63.324964
DZD 133.712147
EGP 50.568902
ERN 15
ETB 129.849787
EUR 0.921645
FJD 2.322499
FKP 0.773835
GBP 0.770995
GEL 2.760391
GGP 0.773835
GHS 15.454482
GIP 0.773835
GMD 72.127796
GNF 8649.682527
GTQ 7.713223
GYD 209.94982
HKD 7.78277
HNL 25.564942
HRK 6.941603
HTG 130.445587
HUF 372.296894
IDR 16718.576893
ILS 3.701965
IMP 0.773835
INR 85.554357
IQD 1308.299078
IRR 42104.284763
ISK 133.051944
JEP 0.773835
JMD 156.330273
JOD 0.70906
JPY 150.114501
KES 129.247253
KGS 86.535048
KHR 3993.237165
KMF 455.492709
KPW 900.019816
KRW 1471.238741
KWD 0.308329
KYD 0.831751
KZT 503.440561
LAK 21634.158301
LBP 89322.563868
LKR 294.670386
LRD 199.943579
LSL 18.386538
LTL 2.95274
LVL 0.60489
LYD 4.811016
MAD 9.629604
MDL 17.958258
MGA 4670.178386
MKD 56.942607
MMK 2099.510008
MNT 3481.383862
MOP 8.013924
MRU 39.697342
MUR 45.624205
MVR 15.4421
MWK 1731.877317
MXN 20.45005
MYR 4.436466
MZN 63.884802
NAD 18.386538
NGN 1536.893581
NIO 36.760755
NOK 10.40773
NPR 136.951137
NZD 1.744181
OMR 0.384995
PAB 1
PEN 3.668903
PGK 4.090104
PHP 57.238189
PKR 279.631053
PLN 3.872133
PYG 7946.798552
QAR 3.639572
RON 4.608694
RSD 108.488768
RUB 84.529386
RWF 1418.368583
SAR 3.74987
SBD 8.500308
SCR 14.484863
SDG 600.465319
SEK 9.913065
SGD 1.343437
SHP 0.785843
SLE 22.830348
SLL 20969.501083
SOS 570.385514
SRD 36.855947
STD 20697.981008
SVC 8.749972
SYP 13002.468687
SZL 18.386538
THB 34.186323
TJS 10.900219
TMT 3.497766
TND 3.103211
TOP 2.407834
TRY 37.92291
TTD 6.767183
TWD 33.248604
TZS 2646.107198
UAH 41.255737
UGX 3649.561079
UYU 42.148301
UZS 12911.275778
VES 69.589677
VND 25640.752098
VUV 123.375609
WST 2.83707
XAF 607.323613
XAG 0.029609
XAU 0.00032
XCD 2.707403
XDR 0.752731
XOF 607.323613
XPF 110.484353
YER 246.006073
ZAR 18.840565
ZMK 9001.19551
ZMW 28.143801
ZWL 321.999592
  • RYCEF

    -0.1800

    9.87

    -1.82%

  • RBGPF

    0.0000

    68

    0%

  • CMSC

    0.0550

    22.495

    +0.24%

  • NGG

    -0.1380

    65.642

    -0.21%

  • RIO

    -0.5500

    59.68

    -0.92%

  • AZN

    -0.4900

    72.11

    -0.68%

  • BTI

    -0.9550

    40.145

    -2.38%

  • GSK

    -0.3100

    37.56

    -0.83%

  • RELX

    0.0700

    50.74

    +0.14%

  • VOD

    -0.1450

    9.125

    -1.59%

  • CMSD

    -0.0050

    22.815

    -0.02%

  • SCS

    0.0000

    11.32

    0%

  • JRI

    0.0200

    13

    +0.15%

  • BP

    -0.0850

    33.725

    -0.25%

  • BCE

    -0.9650

    21.815

    -4.42%

  • BCC

    2.2250

    101.135

    +2.2%

South Korea's political crisis: what could happen next?
South Korea's political crisis: what could happen next? / Photo: © AFP

South Korea's political crisis: what could happen next?

South Korean investigators attempted to arrest impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol at his residence Friday over a failed martial law bid but were blocked by his security forces.

Text size:

They stood down just days before the warrant's deadline expires on Monday.

AFP takes a look at what could happen next:

- Another arrest -

The Corruption Investigation Office (CIO) may attempt to execute the arrest warrant for Yoon again before the January 6 deadline.

"Future actions will be decided after further review," it said after halting its initial attempt.

If he is arrested before that date, the CIO will have 48 hours to either request a new warrant for his formal arrest or release him.

Yoon's lawyers have repeatedly said that the warrant issued by the court is "unlawful" and "illegal", pledging to take further legal action against it.

The Presidential Security Service has also asserted that the CIO "unlawfully intruded" into the presidential residence and said it would hold the investigators "legally accountable" for their actions.

Even if January 6 comes and goes, the CIO can reapply for the same seven-day detention warrant.

- Stronger warrant -

If they fail to detain Yoon before the January 6 deadline, investigators could seek a new, stronger arrest warrant that would allow them to detain him longer than the 48 hours allowed under the current court order.

Experts say the likelihood of a court approving it is not low, given that Yoon has already refused to appear for questioning three times and has not complied with the existing warrant.

The stronger warrant is typically issued when "a suspect refuses to cooperate with the investigation", political commentator Park Sang-byung told AFP.

Yoon has also "incited and encouraged extreme (right-wing) supporters, which could be seen as effectively admitting to the criminal charges in the eyes of the court," he added.

But executing this type of warrant, even if issued by the court, may not be feasible if Yoon again refuses to leave his residence with the assistance of his security forces, which include a military unit.

- Acting president acts -

The prolonged standoff within the presidential residence compound Friday led the CIO and opposition Democratic Party to urge acting President Choi Sang-mok to order the presidential security service to cooperate.

"It is practically impossible to execute the arrest warrant as long as the security officials from the Presidential Security Service continue their protection," the CIO said in a statement.

Choi, a member of Yoon's ruling People Power Party who also serves as deputy prime minister and finance minister, is yet to comment on the issue.

Experts suggest that if Choi orders the security service to cooperate, the chances of Yoon being arrested before the January 6 deadline will increase.

But the acting president has already faced severe backlash from his party for appointing two new justices to fill three vacancies on the Constitutional Court.

That decision has increased the likelihood of the court upholding Yoon's impeachment -- with at least six out of eight needed to back the decision.

Given the situation, "it is unlikely that Choi would cooperate with the CIO's request," Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University, told AFP.

Choi's short-lived predecessor in the role of acting president and prime minister, Han Duck-soo, was impeached by lawmakers who argued he refused a key opposition demand to install three extra judges at the Constitutional Court, viewed as impeding Yoon's potential removal from office.

- 'Wait' for court -

South Korea's Constitutional Court has up to 180 days to determine whether to dismiss Yoon as president or restore his powers.

Until then, while suspended, Yoon holds the title of president.

Experts suggest the process for investigators to prosecute or formally arrest Yoon would be much easier were he to be stripped of the presidential title.

But the 180-day timeframe is considerable and could potentially delay proceedings significantly.

The Constitutional Court has said it will expedite the impeachment trial due to the seriousness of the case.

But Yoon's lawyers argued Friday that the court must utilise the full 180 days to conduct the hearings, especially to examine "the circumstances that led to the declaration of martial law".

L.Holland--TFWP